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Estimaciones de organismos internacionales sostienen que la inversión extranjera y el comercio exterior serán fundamentales en el crecimiento de la región en tiempos de pos-pandemia.
En medio de la reactivación económica y las nuevas normativas para impulsar los distintos sectores económicos del país, el panorama del comercio exterior es cada vez más favorable a pesar de las repercusiones de la pandemia, que dejó entre otras cosas, una considerable reducción de la demanda de bienes y servicios.
Según estimaciones de la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC), el Fondo Monetario Internacional y la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), el comercio exterior jugará un papel fundamental como dinamizador de la economía a nivel mundial, por lo que recomiendan crear escenarios propicios para incentivar entre otras, la inversión extranjera de forma que un crecimiento económico prometedor dependerá de factores como las políticas públicas, la oferta y demanda de los productos, la aplicación de los tratados de libre comercio y la tendencia de los consumidores luego de la superación de la pandemia.
En Colombia, el escenario de exportaciones se manifiesta con una tendencia al alza lo cual podría indicar una pronta recuperación de la macroeconomía colombiana. De acuerdo con Santiago Arbouin socio de CMS Rodríguez-Azuero, experto en aduanas y comercio exterior, este último “permite por un lado, que los países cuenten con mayor cantidad de bienes y servicios de los que podrían producir si dependiera totalmente de producción nacional y por otro, facilita a los empresarios ampliar el mercado de sus productos y servicios a nivel internacional, incrementando la demanda a un mercado globalizado y de esta manera aumentar la capacidad productiva de la industria nacional”.
Sin embargo, para que esto se concrete, Colombia deberá superar tres retos fundamentales, el primero, será entrar en la era de la modernización aduanera y para esto tendrá que: realizar el control y seguimiento satelital del movimiento de la carga en todo el Territorio Nacional Aduanero (TAN), promover el desarrollo de alianzas entre las aduanas y el sector privado en búsqueda de relaciones de confianza.
Segundo, la apertura comercial, puesto que Colombia, comparada con el resto del mundo, tiene niveles muy bajos. En 1994 alcanzaban el 21% en las importaciones nacionales, mientras que en 2019 el indicador fue de 22%. Es decir, casi treinta años después, no hubo cambios en este importante indicador.
Y tercero, reactivar las exportaciones no tradicionales. Actualmente los bienes que tradicionalmente se exportan representan el 70% de la canasta exportadora. El mayor problema es que esta participación se ha mantenido prácticamente inalterada desde el fin del auge minero-energético de 2008-2013 (cuando las exportaciones alcanzaron niveles de USD 60.000 millones).
“Con este panorama, Colombia debe potenciar las oportunidades y apoyar al sector manufacturero, agroindustrial y tecnológico, debemos actuar ahora mientras las condiciones estén dadas para avanzar”, concluyó Arbouin.
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