Tras cerca de dos años en que los precios venían aumentando, en los últimos dos meses el Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) finalmente comenzó a descender. La variación anual para mayo se ubicó en 12,36%, y confirmó la tendencia a la baja, que el mercado espera se afiance en el segundo semestre.
Detrás de esto, según los expertos, hay dos fenómenos. Por un lado, la contracción de la demanda gracias al proceso de subidas de tasas de interés que viene impulsando el Banco de la República desde finales de 2021, así como por la moderación en los costos de los productores, que se evidencian en el descenso del Índice de Precios al Productor (IPP), que para mayo ya registraba una variación de -1,43% en términos anuales.
“Mucho de la caída de la inflación es un efecto base, nos estamos nivelando frente a los precios del año pasado, que subieron mucho. Los costos dejaron de crecer, y los precios internacionales de los insumos han caído, lo cual permite que los empresarios no tengan una presión tan fuerte, y eso ayuda a que no suban precios, pero también pensaría que las tasas de interés en este momento no son un factor fundamental”, explica Camilo Herrera, director de la firma Raddar.
Según el experto, es importante tener presente que los costos crecieron mucho más que los precios, lo que hace que los productores aún tengan problemas en sus estructuras de costos y márgenes de ganancia. Además, señala que la tendencia del IPP comenzó a revertirse hace cerca de un año mientras que la inflación cambió su tendencia hace dos meses, una diferencia de casi 12 meses.
“El freno en la inflación no se está dando por una caída de precios, o menores precios, sino por un menor crecimiento en los costos”, asegura Herrera.
Igualmente, el experto considera que a las tasas “aún les falta mucho para afectar realmente el mercado”, pero que sí se ha visto que los hogares redujeron su nivel de compra.
“La caída de tasas de los bancos va a ser más rápida que la del Emisor, pues esa caída no está solo en función de las tasas de usura, sino de las condiciones del mercado”, asevera el experto.
De acuerdo con José Ignacio López, director de investigaciones económicas de Corficolombiana, es complejo descomponer ese efecto en la inflación entre el choque de oferta de los insumos, y también la caída de la demanda, a pesar de que la academia ha intentado hacer algunos análisis.
“Por el lado de los insumos ya se está viendo una corrección importante. En dólares, los IPP a nivel global están en deflación, en caída, lo que ha implicado una desinflación en muchas jurisdicciones. En América Latina hemos visto sorpresas recientemente, en que las inflaciones resultan más bajas de lo que los analistas esperamos, lo hemos visto en Colombia”, indicó el economista.
Según explica López, así como hubo un componente global en la inflación cuando subieron los precios, también está en la baja del IPC.
“Cuando vemos la dinámica entre consumo y créditos se nota también una desaceleración en algunos segmentos, así como los efectos de las tasas de interés sobre la demanda agregada, por lo que también habría un efecto sobre la inflación. En términos de tasas, pensaría que este nivel es suficientemente restrictivo”, dijo.
De acuerdo con el ejecutivo de Corficolombiana, existe un consenso entre los analistas frente a cómo las tasas deberían quedarse quietas, pero surge la duda sobre la velocidad en que puede caer la inflación, por choques como el aumento en la gasolina.
“La discusión no es si hay aumento de tasas o no, porque seguramente estarán quietas, sino que la pregunta es el espacio que tendrá el Banco de la República hacia final de año para bajar tasas”, dijo.
De otra parte, Luis Fernando Mejía, el director ejecutivo del centro de estudios Fedesarrollo, aseguró que ambos factores han tenido impacto en la reducción del dato de la inflación en términos anuales.
“Por un lado, el impacto del aumento en las tasas de interés ha ralentizado el crecimiento de la demanda y, por otro lado está, la disminución de los efectos de los choques de oferta, incluyendo caída en precios de commodities y la caída en costos de transporte, que tanto impactaron en la post-pandemia”, explicó el economista.
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