Mostrando la fuerte desaceleración del crecimiento, el Índice de Seguimiento a la Economía (ISE), publicó que para julio el crecimiento anual fue de 1,18%.
De acuerdo con el DANE, en su serie ajustada por efecto estacional, la tasa de crecimiento fue de 1,29% en julio, respecto a igual mes de 2022. En comparación con el mes inmediatamente anterior (junio), la economía ‒también en su serie ajustada‒ representó un decrecimiento de 0,69%.
Asimismo, entre enero y julio el crecimiento llegó a 1,54%. En el mismo periodo del año pasado, el resultado era de 9,55%, lo que ya mostraba los signos de lo que sería el resultado del año total, el cual, finalmente fue de 7,2%.
Para 2023, el propio gobierno ha aceptado que la desaceleración no permitirá una expansión más allá de un precario 2%. De hecho, el pronóstico del Ministerio de Hacienda es de 1,8% a 2%.
El ISE parte de actividades en conjunto, más no de sectores como lo hace el DANE con la medición del PIB. De esa manera, contempla actividades primarias, secundarias y terciarias. Entre las primeras se inscriben la agricultura, la ganadería, la pesca y similares. Entre las secundarias están la industria y la manufactura, mientras que de las terciarias hacen parte los servicios, el comercio y el turismo.
Lo primario
De acuerdo con la entidad de estadísticas, para julio el índice de las actividades primarias, en su serie original se ubicó en 101,24, lo que representó un crecimiento de 2,23% respecto al mes de julio de 2022 (99,03).
Para julio de 2023 el índice de las actividades primarias en su serie ajustada por efecto estacional y calendario, se ubicó en 100,22, lo que representó un decrecimiento de 1,03%, respecto al mes de junio de 2023, mes en el que también el dato fue negativo (-0,25 %).
Actividades secundarias
De acuerdo con el informe del DANE, en julio de 2023 el índice de las actividades secundarias, en su serie original evidencia una estrepitosa caída en el comportamiento anual: decrecimiento de 5,18% respecto al mes de julio de 2022. En cuanto a la serie ajustada por efecto estacional, el decrecimiento fue de 5,17% respecto al mes de julio de 2022. La producción de la industria ha caído por la contracción en el consumo y también, por un bajonazo en la confianza de los industriales, según reveló recientemente la tradicional encuesta en ese tema.
Si se compara lo sucedido en la industria, en julio, frente a junio, el decrecimiento es de 1,76%, de acuerdo con lo revelado en el informe del DANE.
Actividades terciarias
Mientras tanto, las actividades terciarias no escaparon al decrecimiento del mes. Para julio, contando los 12 meses hasta el séptimo mes, la serie original de este componente registra un crecimiento de 2,30% respecto a julio de 2022. Para el caso de la serie ajustada por efecto estacional, la cifra mostrada por el DANE evidencia una variación de 2,75% respecto al mes de julio de 2022.
Y si se observa lo sucedido en julio, frente a junio, se mantiene la misma tendencia de decrecimiento en todos los componentes de la medición. “Para julio de 2023 el índice de las actividades terciarias en su serie ajustada representó un decrecimiento de 0,27%, respecto a junio de 2023”.
El DANE explica que las actividades terciarias agrupan los servicios de suministro de electricidad, gas, vapor y aire acondicionado; distribución de agua; evacuación y tratamiento de aguas residuales, gestión de desechos y actividades de saneamiento ambiental; comercio al por mayor y al por menor; reparación de vehículos automotores y motocicletas; transporte y almacenamiento; alojamiento y servicios de comida; información y comunicaciones; actividades financieras y de seguros.
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