El planeta ha estado tan caliente en 2023 que incluso antes de que termine el año, la Organización Meteorológica Mundial lo ha declarado el más cálido jamás registrado.
Las temperaturas globales estuvieron alrededor de 1,4 °C (2,5 °F) por encima del promedio preindustrial durante los primeros 10 meses del año, según el Informe sobre el estado provisional del clima global 2023 de la OMM. Eso proporciona suficiente certeza para declararlo como el año más caluroso registrado incluso cuando falta un mes para el final, en lo que es una dura advertencia para los negociadores climáticos reunidos en Medio Oriente.
“El calentamiento global récord debería provocar escalofríos en los líderes mundiales y debería impulsarlos a actuar”, dijo el jueves el secretario general de la ONU, António Guterres, en Dubai, al inicio de la cumbre climática COP28 . “Estamos viviendo el colapso climático en tiempo real y el impacto es devastador”.
El informe de la agencia de las Naciones Unidas también incluye un sombrío resumen de los eventos climáticos más extremos del año, exponiendo lo que está en juego para las decenas de miles de líderes globales, diplomáticos, empresarios y activistas que llegarán a los Emiratos Árabes Unidos para participar en conversaciones sobre el clima durante dos semanas.
Las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero responsables del calentamiento del planeta continuaron aumentando en 2023 después de alcanzar un máximo histórico el año pasado, según muestra el informe. Eso contribuyó a generar temperaturas mensuales récord en la tierra de julio a septiembre y en los océanos de abril a septiembre. El aumento del calor está empeorando las condiciones climáticas extremas, lo que a su vez está provocando muertes e inseguridad alimentaria, además de desplazar a millones de personas.
Parte del calor récord de este año puede atribuirse a El Niño, un fenómeno cíclico caracterizado por el calentamiento del Océano Pacífico oriental que normalmente conduce a temperaturas más altas y cambios en los patrones climáticos en muchas partes del mundo. Pero algunas de las áreas que sufrieron temperaturas inusualmente altas, incluido el Atlántico nororiental, no corresponden a los patrones típicos asociados con El Niño, señala el informe.
Los océanos que cubren alrededor de 70% de la superficie del planeta han absorbido alrededor de 90% del calor atrapado en las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero desde 1971. Esto ha reducido el ritmo de calentamiento de la atmósfera, pero también ha provocado un aumento de las temperaturas de los océanos, un aumento del nivel del mar, acidificación y derretimiento del hielo en la tierra y los mares.
En general, el contenido de calor de los océanos alcanzó el nivel más alto jamás registrado en 2023. Las capas superiores de los océanos experimentaron una tendencia continua de calentamiento, y el Océano Austral y el Atlántico Norte y Sur registraron los niveles más altos de calor. Eso, junto con la influencia de El Niño y el derretimiento de glaciares y capas de hielo, contribuyó a que los niveles medios globales del mar alcanzaran un nivel récord, según el informe.
La superficie del mar cubierta de hielo en la Antártida alcanzó su extensión más baja registrada en 2023, registrando el segundo año consecutivo de niveles récord. El hielo marino del Ártico permaneció por debajo del promedio histórico durante el año.
El hielo terrestre también se vio afectado por el calor récord de 2023. Las estimaciones preliminares muestran que el balance de masa de la capa de hielo de Groenlandia (una métrica que representa la diferencia entre la nieve acumulada y la escorrentía de agua de deshielo) estuvo por debajo del promedio a largo plazo, aunque no tan malo como el derretimiento extremo observado en los últimos años. Sin embargo , los glaciares de América del Norte y los Alpes europeos no tuvieron tanta suerte y experimentaron un grave derretimiento en 2023. En Suiza, los glaciares perdieron alrededor de 10% de su volumen restante en los últimos dos años, mientras que los de las Montañas Rocosas canadienses se adelgazaron tres veces. más en 2023 que en comparación con el promedio anual de las últimas dos décadas.
Más allá de las cifras globales, 2023 fue un año de catástrofes climáticas en todas partes. Quizás la más devastadora fue la tormenta Daniel, impulsada por el cambio climático, que causó inundaciones extremas en Grecia, Bulgaria y Turquía antes de sobrevolar el Mediterráneo y tocar tierra por segunda vez en el noreste de Libia, donde se ha confirmado la muerte de 4.345 personas, 8.500 siguen desaparecidas y 43.000 han sido desplazados.
En otros lugares, el ciclón tropical Freddy se convirtió en uno de los ciclones tropicales más longevos del mundo después de que se formó a principios de febrero y tocó tierra en Mozambique el 11 de marzo. La tormenta provocó fuertes lluvias e inundaciones en partes de Malawi y Mozambique que aún no se habían recuperado de tormentas que azotaron la región el año pasado y provocaron cientos de muertes y más de 659.000 desplazamientos internos sólo en Malawi.
Las olas de calor durante el verano del hemisferio norte provocaron temperaturas extremadamente altas en muchos países. La Cerdeña italiana alcanzó los 48,2 °C el 24 de julio, sólo 0,6 °C por debajo del récord histórico de Europa. Las temperaturas en Agadir, en Marruecos, establecieron un récord para el país del norte de África cuando alcanzaron unos abrasadores 50,4 ° C, el 11 de agosto.
Las temperaturas abrasadoras y la falta de lluvia provocaron una devastadora temporada de incendios forestales en muchos lugares, pero en ningún lugar más que en Canadá. El país sufrió la temporada de incendios forestales más grave jamás registrada . Se quemaron un total de 18,5 millones de hectáreas, una superficie que duplica el tamaño de Portugal. Los impactos se extendieron mucho más allá de las fronteras del país, con columnas de humo tóxico que descendieron sobre la costa este de Estados Unidos e incluso llegaron hasta Europa. Los incendios también provocaron un aumento masivo de las emisiones de carbono de Canadá , lo que muestra el peligroso ciclo de retroalimentación del cambio climático que empeora los incendios forestales que a su vez empeoran el cambio climático.
Las sequías tuvieron algunos de los impactos de mayor alcance en 2023. El noroeste de África, partes de la Península Ibérica , Asia central y suroeste, América del Sur y partes de EE. UU. registraron niveles de lluvia inusualmente bajos que provocaron importantes pérdidas de cultivos y restricciones de agua. para la población.
En el Cuerno de África , cinco temporadas consecutivas de sequía han reducido la capacidad del suelo para absorber agua. Cuando a principios de este año cayeron fuertes lluvias, las comunidades de pastores y agricultores sufrieron pérdidas y muchos se vieron obligados a reubicarse. Las inundaciones desplazaron a alrededor de 1,4 millones de personas hasta junio de 2023, lo que se suma a los 2,7 millones de personas desplazadas durante cinco temporadas de sequía consecutivas.
“Este año hemos visto comunidades de todo el mundo azotadas por incendios, inundaciones y temperaturas abrasadoras”, dijo Guterres. “El informe de hoy muestra que estamos en graves problemas”.
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