La actividad productiva en el trimestre móvil terminado en noviembre se expandió a una tasa anual de 0,2%, de acuerdo con el indicador Nowcash del Bancolombia.
De acuerdo con los analistas, “esta señal es alentadora, en la medida que los resultados de nuestro indicador para el mes anterior revelaron una contracción de la economía del orden de 0,3%”.
Destacan en este periodo que en el frente sectorial el resultado de los servicios de recreación, administración pública, servicios públicos domiciliarios y minería, que se expandieron en el undécimo mes del año.
Asimismo, según los investigadores, el indicador revela un panorama desafiante para las actividades de construcción, comercio, industria, servicios profesionales y comunicaciones, ya que estos sectores experimentaron contracciones, mientras que la agricultura se expande con menor intensidad.
La actividad
Según el análisis de la entidad financiera, “la serie ajustada por efecto estacional del indicador del Bancolombia, muestra que durante noviembre la actividad se contrajo 0,5% mensual, lo que significa una caída menos pronunciada frente al resultado de octubre (-1,3%). En términos anuales, la actividad muestra un cambio de tendencia apreciable, ya que en noviembre se ubicó en 1,1%”.
Señalan que “los resultados de pronóstico para el último trimestre del año, a partir de nuestro indicador, revelan que la economía logra expandirse a una tasa de 0,3% anual. Este resultado contrasta con la respuesta del consenso de los analistas para el cuarto trimestre, cuya expectativa es de 1,5% en la más reciente publicación”.
El NowCast Bancolombia es una familia de indicadores propietarios de actividad económica elaborados por el Grupo Bancolombia.
Los índices son construidos mediante el procesamiento, análisis y agregación de la información correspondiente a las transacciones en los canales y medios de pago. Para tal fin, se emplean herramientas analíticas y cuantitativas avanzadas, gracias a las cuales es posible generar una estimación oportuna y en alta frecuencia sobre el estado de la actividad productiva en Colombia. Estos indicadores buscan servir como herramienta de análisis complementaria de la información oficial, de modo que contribuyan a un mejor entendimiento de la coyuntura y las perspectivas económicas en el país.
Por otra parte, y en las previsiones sobre el PIB para este año, el gerente del Banco de la República, Leonardo Villar, aseguró que la proyección para 2023 es de 0,9%.
“Hemos visto recientemente cifras de crecimiento fuertemente negativas con respecto a los niveles atípicamente altos observados un año atrás. Para el conjunto de la actividad productiva, el equipo técnico del Banco esperaba un crecimiento bajo en el tercer trimestre, del orden de 0,4%, pero los datos del DANE nos mostraron una contracción de 0,3%”.
Más ajustes
Felipe Campos, gerente de Inversión y Estrategia Alianza Valores, comentó que, dados los recientes resultados de la economía, presentados por el DANE, “esperamos que el crecimiento del PIB, en todo el año, sea más acotado de lo estimado previamente. Puntualmente esperamos un resultado del 0,5% en el cuarto trimestre, lo que llevaría a un crecimiento en torno al 0,9% para todo el 2023”.
Julio Cesar Alonso, director del Centro de Investigación en Economía y Finanzas de la Universidad Icesi, considera que con los resultados conocidos hasta el momento parece muy difícil que se logre la meta inicial del Gobierno.
“Para que se cumpla el pronóstico del Banco de la República (0,9%), se requeriría un crecimiento anual del cuarto trimestre de 0,6%. Este crecimiento para ese periodo del 2023 parece relativamente alto. Tampoco se cumplirían las proyecciones iniciales de entidades como el Banco Mundial y Fedesarrollo”.
Agregó el académico que las implicaciones del no cumplimiento de la meta de crecimiento van más allá de una anécdota. Por ejemplo, podría generar un déficit fiscal más grande en 2024 o la necesidad de repensar el gasto. “Los ingresos fiscales el 2024 dependen del PIB del 2023 y el gasto no. Esto hace necesario que el Gobierno repiense los gastos y presupuesto de ingresos para el próximo año”.
This blog is definitely rather handy since I’m at the moment creating an internet floral website – although I am only starting out therefore it’s really fairly small, nothing like this site. Can link to a few of the posts here as they are quite. Thanks much. Zoey Olsen
I’ve recently started a blog, the info you offer on this website has helped me greatly. Thank you for all of your time & work.
Keep functioning ,great job!
It?¦s really a great and helpful piece of information. I?¦m happy that you just shared this useful info with us. Please keep us up to date like this. Thanks for sharing.
Its superb as your other articles : D, thankyou for putting up. “In the spider-web of facts, many a truth is strangled.” by Paul Eldridge.
Hmm is anyone else having problems with the images on this blog loading? I’m trying to find out if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.
Woh I love your posts, saved to bookmarks! .
Great items from you, man. I’ve consider your stuff prior to and you are just too fantastic. I actually like what you have bought right here, certainly like what you are stating and the way in which in which you are saying it. You’re making it enjoyable and you continue to take care of to stay it smart. I can’t wait to learn much more from you. This is really a terrific website.
Thanks , I’ve just been searching for information approximately this subject for a while and yours is the best I’ve discovered so far. However, what about the bottom line? Are you certain about the supply?
What Is Exactly ZenCortex? ZenCortex is an optimal hearing function support
What i do not realize is in truth how you are not actually a lot more well-liked than you might be right now. You’re so intelligent. You realize thus considerably with regards to this subject, made me individually consider it from a lot of varied angles. Its like men and women don’t seem to be interested until it’s something to accomplish with Girl gaga! Your own stuffs excellent. At all times handle it up!
I wanted to compose you one little word in order to give thanks yet again regarding the pretty tactics you’ve featured in this case. It was quite extremely generous of you to grant publicly precisely what a lot of folks could possibly have supplied as an e-book to make some cash on their own, precisely given that you might well have done it in case you wanted. Those concepts in addition served to be a great way to know that other people online have similar passion just like my own to find out way more on the topic of this issue. I’m sure there are several more enjoyable occasions ahead for individuals who read through your blog post.
Heya i’m for the first time here. I came across this board and I find It truly helpful & it helped me out a lot. I am hoping to give something back and help others like you aided me.
Does your site have a contact page? I’m having trouble locating it but, I’d like to shoot you an e-mail. I’ve got some recommendations for your blog you might be interested in hearing. Either way, great website and I look forward to seeing it expand over time.
I found your weblog site on google and verify just a few of your early posts. Proceed to maintain up the very good operate. I simply additional up your RSS feed to my MSN Information Reader. Seeking ahead to studying more from you later on!…
Some genuinely interesting information, well written and loosely user pleasant.
I like what you guys are up too. This type of clever work and reporting! Keep up the excellent works guys I’ve added you guys to my blogroll.
Good day! Do you know if they make any plugins to help with SEO? I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good gains. If you know of any please share. Thank you!
I’ll immediately grab your rss as I can’t find your e-mail subscription link or e-newsletter service. Do you have any? Kindly let me know so that I could subscribe. Thanks.
Everyone loves what you guys tend to be up too. This kind of clever work and exposure! Keep up the superb works guys I’ve included you guys to blogroll.
What Is LeanBiome? LeanBiome, a new weight loss solution, includes beneficial strains of gut bacteria that work fast for weight loss.
I view something really special in this site.
About Blue Tonic Weight Loss Drink Recipe:The Blue Tonic Weight Loss Drink Recipe is more than just a beverage; it’s a potent blend of carefully selected ingredients designed to support your weight loss journey.
I was very pleased to find this web-site.I wanted to thanks for your time for this wonderful read!! I definitely enjoying every little bit of it and I have you bookmarked to check out new stuff you blog post.
Hey, you used to write wonderful, but the last few posts have been kinda boring… I miss your tremendous writings. Past several posts are just a little out of track! come on!
Hi there, just became alert to your weblog through Google, and found that it is truly informative. I’m going to be careful for brussels. I’ll be grateful when you proceed this in future. Many other people shall be benefited out of your writing. Cheers!
I think you have noted some very interesting points, appreciate it for the post.
The root of your writing while appearing reasonable at first, did not really work well with me after some time. Someplace within the paragraphs you actually managed to make me a believer unfortunately just for a short while. I nevertheless have got a problem with your leaps in logic and you might do nicely to fill in all those gaps. If you can accomplish that, I will undoubtedly end up being impressed.
Dead pent content material, appreciate it for information. “Life is God’s novel. Let him write it.” by Isaac Bashevis Singer.
Thanks for the good writeup. It if truth be told was once a leisure account it. Look complex to more brought agreeable from you! However, how could we be in contact?
Thank you for your entire hard work on this web site. Kate really loves participating in investigations and it is easy to see why. All of us hear all about the lively form you produce helpful suggestions via this website and boost response from visitors on the issue then our girl is really starting to learn a lot. Take advantage of the remaining portion of the year. You are conducting a terrific job.
Everything is very open and very clear explanation of issues. was truly information. Your website is very useful. Thanks for sharing.
I haven’t checked in here for a while as I thought it was getting boring, but the last several posts are good quality so I guess I’ll add you back to my daily bloglist. You deserve it my friend 🙂
Hey there just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The text in your article seem to be running off the screen in Chrome. I’m not sure if this is a format issue or something to do with web browser compatibility but I thought I’d post to let you know. The design look great though! Hope you get the problem solved soon. Thanks
Excellent blog here! Also your web site loads up fast! What host are you using? Can I get your affiliate link to your host? I wish my site loaded up as fast as yours lol
I like this post, enjoyed this one thank you for putting up. “What is a thousand years Time is short for one who thinks, endless for one who yearns.” by Alain.
I always was concerned in this topic and still am, regards for putting up.
Understanding NanoDefense Pro: What is it? NanoDefense Pro is a specialized formula designed to improve nail and foot health naturally.
Real nice design and great content, absolutely nothing else we require : D.
Fantastic post however , I was wondering if you could write a litte more on this subject? I’d be very thankful if you could elaborate a little bit further. Kudos!
F*ckin’ remarkable things here. I am very glad to see your article. Thank you so much and i am taking a look ahead to touch you. Will you kindly drop me a mail?
Thanks for helping out, wonderful info .
Hey, I think your blog might be having browser compatibility issues. When I look at your website in Opera, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping. I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other then that, terrific blog!
WONDERFUL Post.thanks for share..extra wait .. …
I’d incessantly want to be update on new blog posts on this website , saved to fav! .
I think other website proprietors should take this web site as an example , very clean and good user genial design.
I got good info from your blog