- El estudio se realizó por un equipo conformado por investigadores de Brasil, Honduras, Estados Unidos y Colombia
- “La climatología se va a comportar más hacia los extremos”
Un aumento en los eventos climáticos extremos de lluvias y temperatura específicamente para Colombia en la región andina donde se viene teniendo eventos de precipitación intensos (aguaceros) y un incremento en los periodos de sequía de cara al 2050, son los resultados que se desprenden de la investigación titulada: “Current and Future Climate Extremes Over Latin America and Caribbean: Assessing Earth System Models From High Resolution Model Intercomparasion Project” publicada en la revista Earth Systems and Environment y en la que participó UNISARC a través del profesor del área de Climatología, Cristian Felipe Zuluaga.
“La tendencia es que cada vez más el volumen de precipitación se concentre y caiga en una menor cantidad de tiempo, mientras que por el lado de la temperatura se tiene una proyección que muestra un incremento en las temperaturas máximas en horas nocturnas conocidas como el fenómeno de ‘las noches cálidas’, explicó el docente de UNISARC.
La investigación fue orientada por un equipo conformado por meteorólogos de Brasil, Honduras, Estados Unidos y Colombia quienes utilizaron modelación climática de alta resolución y última generación que representó un desafío computacional importante; y que al tiempo, llevó a un procesamiento de datos de más de ocho meses, aspectos que permitieron hacer una comparación en términos de resultados y diferenciación de los efectos que tendrán los extremos climáticos en las distintas regiones de América Latina y el Caribe.
Para el investigador y docente de la universidad de Santa Rosa de Cabal, los resultados del estudio constituyen una valiosa información para la climatología mundial. “esperamos que sea un insumo importante para las personas que están tomando decisiones, que se encargan de hacer los planes de adaptación al cambio climático, de la gestión del riesgo. Les estamos entregando un resultado estadísticamente significativo, confiable, con proyecciones que son un poco preocupantes, pero que nos deben alertar y que nos brindan una posibilidad de actuar a tiempo respecto a cómo nos vamos a organizar como sociedad y a responder ante la nueva emergencia climática que estamos viviendo”, indicó.
De acuerdo con la Organización Meteorológica Mundial, lo que estamos viviendo en los últimos tres años han sido los más anómalos de lo que ha corrido de este siglo; donde este fenómeno seguirá incrementándose hacia el 2050 y la climatología se va a comportar más hacia los extremos. “esperamos que las temperaturas, tanto de la noche como del día, cada vez sean más altas; como los periodos secos cada vez más prolongados; esto evidentemente daría pie a todos los eventos extremos como deslizamientos, movimientos en masa (temblores) y se crearían condiciones propicias para los incendios forestales y un impacto considerable en la agricultura”.
LA ACADEMIA
Para el docente de UNISARC Cristian Felipe Zuluaga, “la importancia de la academia es fundamental en el entendimiento, en el estudio y en toda las bases físicas que nos permitan a nosotros sentar una base para poder ejercer todos los planes de mitigación y adaptación. En el caso específico de UNISARC y mi papel desde la docencia, es entender cómo específicamente estos hallazgos van afectar la agricultura y particularmente la producción agrícola de nuestra región”, señaló.
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